Are We in a Bull Market Yet? | Morgan Stanley (2024)

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Are We in a Bull Market Yet? | Morgan Stanley? ›

Key Takeaways. Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.

We're now well into bull market territory, and stock prices don't seem to be slowing down. This is an exciting time to invest, but the right strategy is key to maximizing your earnings.

After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)

Investors are celebrating new all-time highs for the S&P 500. The index is a popular stand-in for the broader stock market, making its new record a signal that Wall Street is officially in a new bull market. But that's a loaded expression with more meaning than news headlines tell you.

Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN)

Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN) is one of the top stocks recommended by Morgan Stanley for 2024. The firm said in December the stock has a 57% upside to bull case. BMO Capital earlier this month published a list of January 2024 laggards it believes will outperform for the rest of the year.

There are signs that a rebound in IPO volume is in the cards for this year, with interest rates peaking and stock markets around the world rallying during the early months of 2024.

Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.

Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.

The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.

But things have been looking up, as the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.74%) has surged by more than 33% since late 2022. While it's unclear whether prices will continue soaring, many people are hopeful that we're in the early stages of a new bull market. If that's the case, 2024 could be a great year for the stock market.

How long are we in a bull market? ›

Rather, market trackers at S&P Dow Jones Indices define a bull market as a 20% rise in the S&P 500 from its previous low. By that measure — a 20% gain off the low —the current bull market began on January 19, 2024. Note that by that measure, a bull market comes to an end when the S&P 500 falls 20% from its peak.

Declining unemployment rate: Bull markets are often marked by a declining or low unemployment, and as people have money to spend, they drive corporate profits higher. Growing economy: Bull markets also tend to coincide with periods when the economy is growing, including positive signs among key economic indicators.

Morgan Stanley main competitors are Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank. Competitor Summary. See how Morgan Stanley compares to its main competitors: JPMorgan Chase & Co. has the most employees (255,351).

Morgan Stanley is planning to eliminate several hundred jobs, the firm's first layoffs since CEO Ted Pick took over from James Gorman in January. The cuts will affect less than 1% of employees in the wealth-management business, which has about 40,000 workers and is the firm's largest unit, sources say.

With offices in 41 countries and more than 75,000 employees, the firm's clients include corporations, governments, institutions, and individuals. Morgan Stanley ranked No. 61 in the 2023 Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue and in the same year ranked #30 in Forbes Global 2000.

Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.

Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.