Here's how the price of gold may rise in the next decade, according to experts (2024)

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Here's how the price of gold may rise in the next decade, according to experts? ›

"Inflation and increased worldwide debt loads, all will raise the tide for commodities like precious metals," explains Matt Willer, managing director and partner at Phoenix Capital Group. When asked to predict what the price of gold will be in 10 years, he said, "$3,800 is my call for 2034."

As of December 2023, U.S. stocks had an average 10-year return rate of 12.75 percent, whereas gold had a return rate of 4.57 percent.

Central bank buying has driven the rise in gold prices since 2022, according to the note. Gold could be entering a strong era, as central bank purchases of gold in 2022 were more than double the average annual purchase across the decade prior, according to JP Morgan.

The World Bank estimated that the price of gold will be around $1,900 in 2023, foreseeing that heightened geopolitical risks could make safe-haven assets more desirable to investors. In 2024, it predicts that the price will be an average of $1,950 per ounce.

According to a report from JPMorgan, gold prices should rise steadily quarter-over-quarter until peaking in the back half of 2025. Currently, gold is trading above $2,250 per ounce, already surpassing JPMorgan's predictions for the year.

As of December 19, 2023, the spot price of gold was $2,024 per ounce. Considering an annual growth rate of 11.2%, an ounce of gold could be worth about $2,251 in one year. In five years, an ounce of gold could be worth about $3,441, provided that the value continues to grow at a rate of 11.2%.

The bottom line

Waiting for an investment price to change favorably is always risky but is arguably more so for alternative assets like gold. And although the price of the precious metal has risen significantly in the past few years, it still may make sense to buy now.

Gold is often seen as a safe haven investment and a store of value, but as a produced commodity, it is also subject to economic forces like supply and demand. When gold miners produce an excess of gold relative to demand, the price will experience downward pressure.

Gold prices will peak at $2,300/oz in 2025, according to J.P. Morgan Research estimates. This prediction assumes a Fed cutting cycle initially delivering 125 basis points (bp) of cuts over the second half of 2024, pushing gold prices to new nominal highs.

Which country has the cheapest gold? ›

There are several countries in the world which are considered cheap in terms of gold prices. Currently, the number one and two popular choices among consumers are Hong Kong and Dubai. As per goldpriceindia.com, the price of one gram of 24k gold in Hong Kong, as of March 4, 2024, is INR 5,418.70.

Gold is often considered a good investment for diversification, as it may be less correlated with other assets such as stocks or bonds. This means that the price of gold may be less affected by movements in other asset classes, which can help to reduce overall portfolio risk.

Most expert analysts predict that the XAUUSD rate will rise. The precious metal is expected to update its historical peak: the rate may exceed $2,300 in 2024. The price will continue to rise in 2024 - 2030. In optimistic scenarios, the rate will go above $4,000.

The bottom line. There's no way to know exactly how much an ounce of gold might cost 10 years from now. However, most experts predict that the price of the precious metal will be significantly higher in 2034 than it is today.

As such, he expects that gold value will reach between $2,400 and $2,500 per ounce. "This would support an additional upside of approximately 7% and take the 2024 return to 20%," he says. Similarly, Gaffney also predicts that gold costs will approach $2,500 per ounce by the end of the year.

Gold: Had 8.86% average return over the last 20 years, often seen as a more stable asset. Stocks: Outperformed gold with 10.27% average return, but can be more volatile. Bonds: Lower returns than gold and stocks, typically seen as the least volatile of the three.

On the other hand, the price of gold will rise dramatically in 20 years: between 2000 and 2020, the price of gold would have risen by 400%. And this gold rush is nothing but a consequence of the economic, financial and health crises that have marked the 21st century.

Over the past five years, the price of gold has appreciated approximately 36% while the total return of the S&P 500 has been 60%. Gold prices can be extremely volatile, and that means that gold isn't an entirely stable investment.