The 4% rule is a common rule of thumb in many retirement planning circles, including the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) community in particular.
But…we don’t really like it for FIRE!
What does the 4% rule actually mean?
Should the 4% rule be used for any FIRE-seeker?
Does the 4% rule really matter to retirement planning at all?
Read on to find out our final take, including what rules of thumb (if any) we’d consider at Cashflows & Portfolios.
The 4% rule is really a starting point for a safe withdrawal rate
Unlike 2 + 2 = 4, the 4% rule is not really a universal truth for any retirement plan at all.
It is, however, in our opinion, a great starting point to understand the impacts of asset decumulation, related to inflation, over time.
As you’ll read more about in the sections below, the 4% rule is fraught with many problems. None more so than for an early retiree or FIRE-seeker. In some cases, for the FIRE community, we believe the 4% rule should no longer be used at all.
Are there really any financial rules to follow?
Here is a snapshot of the article from 1994!
Despite the geeky photo (sorry Bill!) Bill Bengen knows his stuff when it comes to financial planning.
Potentially no other retirement planning rule of thumb has received more attention over the last 25-30 years than Bengen’s publication about the 4% rule. This publication in 1994 has triggered a new generation of devotees and arm-chair financial planners that are using this quick-math as a way to cement some retirement dreams. We believe that is a mistake for a few reasons.
First, let’s unpack what the 4% rule really means.
What does the 4% rule actually mean?
From the study:
“In Figures 1 (a)-l(d), a series of graphs illustrates the historical performance of portfolios consisting of 50-percent intermediate-term Treasury notes and 50-percent common stocks (an arbitrary asset allocation chosen for purposes of illustration). I have quantified portfolio performance in terms of “portfolio longevity”: how long the portfolio will last before all its investments have been exhausted by
withdrawals. This is an intuitive approach that is easy to explain to my clients, whose primary goal is making it through retirement without exhausting their funds, and whose secondary goal is accumulating wealth for their heirs.”
Unpacking this further, for those that do not want to read the entire study, here is something more succinct from Bengen:
“Should be safe”.
Again, the theory is one thing. Reality is something different and the financial future is always subject to change. Furthermore, if you’re blindly following this formula without considering whether it’s right for your situation, let alone putting in some guardrail approach to monitor your portfolio value at various checkpoints, you could end up either running out of money prematurely or being left with a huge financial surplus that you could have spent during your retirement. We’ll prove that point later on.
Should the 4% rule be used for any FIRE-seeker?
Probably not.
For many reasons.
A few years ago, Vanguard published an outstanding article about the need to revise any thinking about the 4% rule for the FIRE movement – the original driver for this post.
Here are some of our thoughts based on the article’s contents.
- Caution #1 – FIRE-seekers should not rely on past performance for future returns
We agree. In looking at this Vanguard set of assumptions below, and based on our own personal investing experiences, we believe historical returns should not be used to guarantee any future results.
Source: Vanguardarticle – Fueling the FIRE movement
While the FP Canada Standards Council doesn’t have a multi-year (10-year) return model in mind, they do highlight annual assumptions based on asset classes.
Here is what 2023 says, the updates for 2024 should be coming out this spring:
So, give or take, assuming someone is close to a 100% equity portfolio then expect close to 6% returns from Canadian stocks and slightly higher from foreign equities.
Source: FP Canada Standards Council.
While interesting, this Council like everyone else has no idea what future returns will actually be.
- Caution #2 – The FIRE-seeking time horizon is longer
It can be and that can have huge impacts of what you can/could spend.
Bengen noted in his 1994 study:
“Therefore, I counsel my clients to withdraw at no more than a four-percent rate during the early years of retirement, especially if they retire early (age 60 or younger). Assuming they have normal life expectancies, they should live at least 25-30 years. If they wish to leave some wealth to their heirs, their expected “portfolio lives” should be some longer than that. “
Bengen goes on to say:
“If the client expects to live another 30 years, I point out that the chart shows 31 scenario years when he would outlive his assets, and only 20 which would have been adequate for his purposes (as we shall see later, a different asset allocation would improve this, but it would still be uncomfortable, in my opinion).
This means he has less than a 40-percent chance to successfully negotiate retirement–not very good odds.”
To paraphrase, Bengen’s study was relevant to 30 years in retirement. Not 35 years. Not 40 years and certainly not 50 years like some FIRE-seekers may need if they plan to retire at age 40 and live to age 90 (or beyond).
This is simply a huge reminder that your time horizon is a critical factor when it comes to retirement planning.
- Caution #3 – FIRE-seekers may need to live with more stocks
We agree. We invest this way too.
Bengen’s 1994 study was based on the following:
“Note that my conclusions above were based on the assumption that the client continually rebalanced a portfolio of 50-percent common stocks and 50-percent intermediate-term Treasuries.”
What might happen if the Bengen portfolio was adjusted to 75% stocks and 25% fixed income?
“Would a higher percentages of stocks, given their higher rates of return, be beneficial to the client?”
Yes.
From the study:
“Clearly, the heavier weighting in stocks in Figure 3(a) has produced some fairly significant improvements. Fully 47 scenario years result in portfolio longevities of the maximum of 50 years, while only 40 scenario years attained that pinnacle in the earlier chart. The only penalties occur in portfolio year 1966, which is shortened by one year, from 33 to 32 years, and in 1969, which is shortened from 36 years to 34. All the other scenario years have equal or greater longevity.”
The takeaway message for us is (historically speaking) to achieve a higher rate of return and to support portfolio longevity, one must consider a higher, longer-term weighting in stocks over fixed income.
The Bengen study was based on a 50-50 stock to fixed income allocation.
We believe FIRE-seekers should at least consider a 75% weighting in their portfolio to stocks: to fight inflation and to mitigate portfolio longevity risks.
- Caution #4 – FIRE-seekers must consider dynamic spending
Everyone probably should. 🙂
Your spending today in your asset accumulation years is likely dynamic – spending is not a straight line. Therefore, we wouldn’t expect such retirement spending to fall into any straight-line thinking either.
From the Vanguard article:
“The 4% rule uses a dollar-plus-inflation strategy. In your first year of retirement, you spend 4% of your savings. After your first year, you increase that amount annually by inflation. This approach allows you to calculate a stable, inflation-adjusted amount to withdraw each year.”
“However, this approach doesn’t take market performance into account.”
Unfortunately with any 4% rule guidelines – it really doesn’t account for real-life market fluctuations and your spending patterns to match.
We don’t know anyone that spends consistently month-after-month that doesn’t change their spending patterns a bit.
Using a Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW) strategy in our opinion is much more useful and realistic.
Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW) 101
The essence of this approach is to compute an income payment required to deplete your portfolio at N years assuming asset allocation and portfolio returns during retirement. For example, N years could be age 99 or 100. This method uses variable (and an increasing) percentage (hence the name) to determine withdrawals from a portfolio during retirement.
Each year, the withdrawal is determined by multiplying that year’s percentage by the current portfolio balance at the time of withdrawal.Consider VPW as return-adjusted withdrawals working in a defined timeline.
Consider this VPW table from Bogleheads:
| Variable-Percentage Withdrawal Rates Based on Age and Asset Allocation | |||||||
| Age | 20% Stocks 80% Bonds | 30% Stocks 70% Bonds | 40% Stocks 60% Bonds | 50% Stocks 50% Bonds | 60% Stocks 40% Bonds | 70% Stocks 30% Bonds | 80% Stocks 20% Bonds |
| 40 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| 41 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| 42 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| 43 | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| 44 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| 45 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% |
| 46 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% |
| 47 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% |
| 48 | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 49 | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 50 | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| 51 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| 52 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% |
| 53 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| 54 | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| 55 | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 56 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| 57 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 58 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 59 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| 60 | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% |
| 61 | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% |
| 62 | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| 63 | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% |
| 64 | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% |
| 65 | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% |
| 66 | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| 67 | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| 68 | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| 69 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| 70 | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% |
| 71 | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% |
| 72 | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| 73 | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% |
| 74 | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| 75 | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| 76 | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% |
| 77 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% |
| 78 | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% |
| 79 | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% |
| 80 | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% |
| 81 | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% |
| 82 | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% |
| 83 | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% |
| 84 | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% |
| 85 | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% |
| 86 | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% |
| 87 | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% |
| 88 | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% |
| 89 | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.2% |
| 90 | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| 91 | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 13.2% |
| 92 | 13.6% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 14.5% |
| 93 | 15.4% | 15.5% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 16.3% |
| 94 | 17.7% | 17.9% | 18.0% | 18.1% | 18.3% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| 95 | 21.0% | 21.1% | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.5% | 21.7% | 21.8% |
| 96 | 25.9% | 26.1% | 26.2% | 26.3% | 26.4% | 26.6% | 26.7% |
| 97 | 34.2% | 34.3% | 34.4% | 34.5% | 34.6% | 34.7% | 34.8% |
| 98 | 50.6% | 50.7% | 50.8% | 50.9% | 50.9% | 51.0% | 51.1% |
| 99 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
You can find more information about VPW on My Own Advisor’s site here.
While Vanguard is correct that every spending/drawdown strategy has pros and cons, a VPW strategy may be more optimal than most since it essentially allows you to spend more in “good years” and requires some curtailing of spending in “bad years” – therefore allowing you to better define a range for your income stream – a ceiling and floor per se.
From Vanguard:
“Giving yourself more spending flexibility may decrease your income stability, but it increases your long-term chance of success. Our research shows that when a FIRE investor with a 50-year retirement horizon uses a dynamic spending strategy, their probability of success in retirement increases from 56% to 90%.**”
That’s a quantum leap in retirement planning success.
Does the 4% rule really matter to retirement planning at all?
Yes, it does, but only as a starting point.
Using a fictional value of $100,000 inside a TFSA, for a 40-year-old today, we were curious to find out how long that balance would last, applying the 4% rule, adjusted to inflation of 2% over time. The results including leveraging some real, historical returns, were interesting.
Here are the assumptions:
- Portfolio: 80% equities/ 20% fixed income
- Annual Return: 5.70%
- Retirement age: 40
- TFSA Balance: $100,000
- Inflation rate: 2%
- Withdrawal rate: 4% increasing with inflation
The result? Using our retirement projection tools (contact us if you need some help determining if you have enough to retire), assuming a consistent return of 5.7%/year, the TFSA ran dry by age 98. Not bad, using the Bengen 4% withdrawal rule (increasing to inflation), the money lasted a full lifetime (for most).
While achieving consistent returns year after year would be nice, the market does not work that way. Some years will be up, others down which is fine while an investor is accumulating, but in retirement, the sequence of returns really matters. How much? Well, let’s run the same projection using the worst real-world 10-year sequence of returns since 1965.
The result? The same TFSA is depleted by age 65, only 25 years after starting retirement.
This illustrates the damage that can happen to a portfolio when withdrawing a constant amount year after year and not adjusting for down years (see VPW above for a safer strategy).
And…to wrap up…
In a recent case study on My Own Advisor, Mark provided some simple projections for “Sally” (we changed her name for the post) to highlight any RRSP withdrawal rate might need to be much higher than any 4% rule to ensure Sally not only meets her spending needs but to ensure she also avoids leaving too much money on the table.
How much should I take out of my RRSP?
Final Thoughts
Any early retiree in your 40’s or 50’s should likely throw the 4% rule out the window.
You’d be much better off using some sort of VPW schedule indicated above.
As Vanguard modelled with over 10,000 scenarios, the VPW strategy has a high success rate with longer retirement time frames.
Need any support with your retirement income projections?
Heuristics related to the 4% rule provide simple, quick math.
That’s OK to a point.
Knowing how to drawdown your portfolio beyond the simple math is both more complex and valuable.
We enjoy helping DIY investors with two (2) low-cost service models to support their decisions.
- Done-For-You– we do the work, analysis, and data entry, and provide your reports OR
- DIY– whereby you do all the work, you do your own data entries, and you get your own results in some professional financial planning software – we essentially open up this solution for you to use 24/7 to be your own retirement income planner!
Just reach out if you wish to learn more!
We enjoy the emails and engagement with you and we want to thank our members for the inspiration and some content for this post. We look forward to sharing more new and updated free content over time.
Mark and Joe.
Further Reading and Insights:
Build wealthby owning these low-cost ETFs here as part of a diversified ETF portfolio. We update this post every year with our favourites.
Many DIY investors love income investing. Read on: Is dividend investing even right for you?
Some Canadians expect toneed $1.7 million to retire with– we think that’s a major problem!
Thanks for your readership!
Mark and Joe.
Disclosure: Cashflows & Portfolios is reader-supported. When you buy through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission.
