Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 3:30pm EDT
Madison Square Garden, New York
Written by The Tower
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The two best words in sports. Game seven. This Sunday's do-or-diegamealso happens to bein the World's Most Famous Arena. At 3:30 p.m. EDT, the Indiana Pacers (3-3; 50-41-3 ATS) and New York Knicks (3-3; 49-42-3 ATS) will fight for the final time. Madison Square Gardenhas alreadytwo game sevens between these teams. The Knicks won 1994's edition, while the Pacers claimed it in 1995. Here in 2024, the rosters arecompletelydifferent, but the stakes remain the same. Who will survive?
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Pacers Need an MSG Win
Winning at home hasn't been an issue for Indiana this postseason, and Friday's game six was no different. The Pacers made a big push in the second quarter and never looked back. However, this team is 1-5 on the road, including a 0-3 record in MSG this series. Their scoring dips to 106.7 points per game in away venues in these playoffs. That's the key for the Pacers on Sunday. Friday saw the team return to fewer than10turnovers and shoot 53.8% from the field. They also grabbed 14 offensive boards. If there's a time to travel well, this is it.
An even more glaring issue for Indiana on the road has been their defense. New York's lowest-scoring home game in this series was 121 points. Indiana allowed the most free throw attempts all season, and that has carried into this series, so cutting back on that would bea greatstart for the Pacers. Continuing to shore up a defensive rebounding percentage that was 26th in the NBA will also slow down the Knicks. Indiana's home performances show that they can get stops. Will they finally bring it with them on the plane?
KeyInjuries -Benedict Mathurin (out)
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New York or Nowhere.
The Knicks' NHL roommates have employed a motto for years, "No Quit in New York." It permeatesthroughthe entire city, as evidenced by every Knicks post-game press conference. So, even as theinjuriescontinue topile up, don't expect this squad to go down without a fight. Offensively, rebounding may be off the tabledependingon who's active. That's ahugeblow for the NBA's top rebounding team. So, they'll need to keep getting to the free throw line and knocking down 82.1% of their attempts at home as they have in this series. That is imperative. Jalen Brunson needs to be brilliant. Donte DiVincenzo is shooting 36.8% in Indiana this series. At home, that number is 47.1%. He must knock down his shots. If New York wants another 120+ points, those two are the key.
However, the real question is howare the Knicksgoing toget stops. Their injuries have left them severely undersized. Indiana was already the league's highest-scoring offense. They held the Pacers to a season-low 91 points in game five, also at home, but that probably won't happen again. Sharp rotations and denying the paintis a must, especially after allowing 62 points in the paint on Friday. Do they have a plan to slow down Indiana?
KeyInjuries-Julius Randle(out); Bojan Bogdanovic (out); Mitchell Robinson (out); OG Anunoby (questionable); Josh Hart (questionable)
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Jalen Brunson missed 11 straight shots in the first half of game six. New York shot 6-13 from the free throw line in that half and 69.2% at the charity stripe overall. A 17-2 run turned a two-point Knicks lead into a 13-point deficit right before halftime. That was essentially the difference in the game. There is a chance that OG Anunoby returns for this one. Josh Hart will likely try to play through an abdominal strain so it's all hands on deck.
Based on how the Pacers have traveled, and how the Knicks have played at home, none of those things will happen in MSG. So, expect this to come down to the wire. If the best player on the floor is the difference in the series, Brunson should fill that role. Shorthanded, New York will survive. Take them to cover the tight spread.
Prediction: New York Knicks -2
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In a game seven, the initial thought is that nerves and physicality will prevail. However, New York's depth and stamina will be the reason that they struggle to get stops on Sunday. Indiana is already the team outscoring everyone in the playoffs after finishing first in points during the regular season.
On the other end, the Pacers have not proven that they can slow down the Knicks in the Garden. New York scored 121 points in game one, 130 points in game two, and 121 again in the fifth matchup. Jalen Brunson shot over 50% in all of those games. Expect this to be a shootout and take the over.
Prediction: Over 208.5
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Written ByAndre Ifill , "The Tower"
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
